When Does Real Disruption Happen?
Alan Pentz, CEO
Washington DC
February 6, 2020 - When does real disruption happen? It’s a question that Marc Andreesen casually answered on a recent episode of his firm’s podcast A16Z. Marc made a great point that big disruptions happen when basic platforms change. For example, the mainframe (IBM) was a platform that gave way to mini computers (DEC) that gave way to the PC (Microsoft/Intel). Then we went to mobile and now to the cloud[1]. The essential disruption is caused by companies needing to rewrite all the applications and software on top of the new platform.
My first thought listening to that is that the best bet for a new platform would be wearables. Instead of everyone looking down at their phone screen they can now look up and past you as they gaze at the heads-up display from their glasses/contacts/neuro implants. It’s already almost here. I have an Apple Watch and AirPods in my ears. I just need my Apple contact lenses to complete my set. Who knows - I might even have an Apple shirt that gives me haptic feedback someday.
Andreesen makes another point in the podcast that really struck me and changed my opinion. Is Artificial Intelligence a feature or a platform? In most applications now, AI is an add-on. I have an HR system that onboards new employees, enrolls them in benefits, etc. that does some AI and gives me trend reports or suggests new benefits or something like that. But if AI were a platform, everything would just be a seamless AI processor with various interfaces. In my mind, there wouldn’t be a weather app, an HR app, an xyz app[2] but just an interface to answer questions, take care of certain things automatically, and provide inputs. My wearables and Siri/Alexa/Google Assistant are just interfaces, not the platform.
That will require an entire rewrite of the existing application ecosystem and allow new entrants to challenge Big Tech. Of course, I wouldn’t count Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook out. They can bring tremendous resources to bear but judging by how Microsoft got complacent after winning the browser wars, I wouldn’t cede the field quite yet.
Notes:
1 You might argue that the cloud is really the same as mobile. Fair enough but most disruptions are just refinements on what came before.
2 While there might be separate AIs under the surface, it would/should appear seamless to the user.
Author
Alan Pentz, CEO and Founder of Corner Alliance, has worked with government leaders in the R&D and innovation communities across DHS, Commerce, NIH, state and local government, and the non-profit sector among others. He has worked in the consulting industry for over ten years with Corner Alliance, SRA, Touchstone Consulting, and Witt O'Brien's. Before consulting, Alan served as a speechwriter and press secretary for former U.S. Senator Max Baucus and as a legislative assistant for former U.S. Representative Paul Kanjorski. He holds an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin.
